| By Richard Ahern - Kuvhiringwa nesarudzo dzese dzakasiyana? Takapepeta marara kuti tiburitse dambarefu rekuti ndiyani achakunda musarudzo dza2024 kana dzaitwa nhasi.
Sarudzo nyowani inobuda zuva rega rega, kazhinji ichipokana neiri pamberi payo, uye vezvenhau vane tsika yecherry-kutora izvo zvinoenderana nehurongwa hwavo.
Takarasa ongororo dzakarerekera kune dzimwe nyika dzinotsigirwa nemasangano ezvematongerwo enyika, takarasa sarudzo dzinoshandisa muenzaniso usingamiriri veruzhinji, uye takangoshandisa ruzivo kubva pollsters rated "B" uye kumusoro.
Hezvino zvatakawana:
Kudivi reDemocrat, zvinoita sekunge Joe Biden achamhanya kechipiri kunyangwe aine makore anopfuura makumi masere uye achiratidza zviratidzo kuderera kwepfungwa. Vamwe vangangove veDemocratic candidates havana kutariswa zvakanyanya muongororo dzakawanda, vachisiya mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wenyika Kamala Harris seye chete nzira inoshanda.
Vamwe vamiriri veDemocrat vakaita saHilary Clinton naBernie Sanders vanovhota zvisina kunaka pavakakwikwidzana naBiden kana Harris. Semuenzaniso, pavakuru mazana masere nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemumwe vakabvunzwa, Harris akawana mapoinzi gumi nerimwe akakwira kupfuura Clinton, asi imwe sarudzo yakaita kuti Biden aputse Harris 891% -11%.
Kupa ivo vanogona kuchengetedza Mutungamiri Biden akasvinura uye akatwasuka, ndiye mukana wakanyanya weDemocrats wekuchengeta hutungamiriri.
Kudivi reRepublican, zvinonyanya kufadza nevanokwikwidza vakati wandei vachikanda heti yavo mumhete. Nekudaro, chaizvo mujaho wevarume vaviri pakati peaimbove mutungamiri wenyika, VaDonald Trump, uye gavhuna wazvino weFlorida Ron DeSantis.
Ron DeSantis achangosimbisa chinangwa chake chekumhanya nekutangisa mushandirapamwe wake nehurukuro naElon Musk yakatumirwa pa Twitter Spaces. Nehurombo, chiitiko ichi chakatambudzwa nenyaya dzehunyanzvi, neodhiyo nekubatanidza zvichidonha kakawanda. Kubva chiitiko, DeSantis ikozvino zvimwe zvisina kunaka (41.1%) pane zvakanaka (41%).
Gore rapfuura DeSantis aivhota zvakanaka - dzimwe sarudzo dzakaratidza kuti aive nemukurumbira kupfuura Donald Trump.
Manzwiro aya akachinja nekukurumidza:
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Republican primary polls
Trump vs DeSantis 2024 sarudzo
Sarudzo dzichangoburwa dzinoratidza izvozvo Trump ndiye Republican anotungamira, neDeSantis ichirasikirwa nemhepo isati yatanga kushambadzira. Sarudzo dzenyika dzava kuratidza musiyano mukuru pakati Trump uye DeSantis, naTrump achinwisa pamusoro pe50% uye DeSantis ichinyura kusvika pamakumi maviri%.
Kushungurudza maDemocrats, kurwiswa kwemutemo kwazvino kwaDonald Trump kwakasimbisa rutsigiro rwake rweveruzhinji. Mupfungwa dzevavhoti, nyaya dzematare dzinogona kusimbisa zvavanotenda kuti Trump ndiye akabatwa nekuvhimwa kwevaroyi.
Kubvumidzwa kwaTrump kwakawedzera zvakanyanya mushure mekutonga a CNN town hall, kwaakaonekwa ari muchimiro chepamusoro - mutsauko wakajeka kumutungamiri wezvino. Chiitiko cheterevhizheni cheawa chakaratidza kuti aimbove mutungamiri wenyika achiri kufarirwa nevavhoti veRepublican, nemhomho yevanhu vachifara nekuseka kwese.
Nekune rimwe divi, kufarirwa kwaGavhuna weFlorida Ron DeSantis neveRepublicans kwakaramba kuchidzikira, nemishumo nezvesimba rake rakaderera uye kushomeka kwehunhu kuri kutonga misoro yenhau. Vavhoti vanonzwa zvakafanana - VaTrump vakawana 9% yepamusoro apo vanhu vakuru vakabvunzwa kuti ndiani "ane shasha," maererano neYouGov.
Zvakadaro, DeSantis yakawana rutsigiro rwechipiri mupfumi pasi rose, Elon Musk. Kunyangwe hazvo Musk asina kumutsigira zviri pamutemo, akataura zvakasimba saizvozvo.
Mishumo inoratidzawo kuti DeSantis yakaunganidza homwe yemari yemushandirapamwe inosvika zana remamiriyoni emadhora, uye aine Twitter CEO Elon Musk kudivi rake, homwe iyi inogona kukurumidza kukura.
Pakupedzisira, vavhoti vanobata simba, uye kana vachienzaniswa zvakananga naTrump, DeSantis anoita kunge akarasika.
Ongororo ichangoburwa kubva kuEconomist yakaratidza VaTrump vachitonga DeSantis nezvikamu makumi matatu nezviviri kubva muzana zveRepublican primary. Saizvozvo, vhoti ichangoburwa kubva kuMorning Consult yakaratidza VaTrump vachitungamira DeSantis ne32%.
Pakupera kwegore rapfuura, mhedzisiro yaive yakanyanya kusimba, paine dzimwe sarudzo dzairatidza DeSantis iri kutungamira. Semuenzaniso, ongororo yakaitwa neSuffolk University yakaratidza DeSantis achitungamira Trump ne23%, uye The Economist naYouGov vakaita kuti atungamire aimbove mutungamiri wenyika ne8%.
Asi handiyo nyaya yacho yese:
2024 sarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika
Sarudzo idzi dzinoratidza chete kuti ndiani achahwina Republican primary - ko iye chaiye presidential election? Ndofunga Joe Biden iri kumhanya, DeSantis inoita kunge yakahwina - asi nediki diki.
Kunyangwe neruboshwe-ruboshwe rwesarudzo dzeyunivhesiti, Quinnipiac University yaive neDeSantis yakatungamira Biden ne1% musarudzo huru. Kusiyana neizvi, ongororo imwe chete yaive naBiden achitungamira Trump ne2% kana sarudzo dzaitwa nhasi, sekureva kwevakanyoresa kuvhota.
Pakazara, sarudzo dzesarudzo dzinoratidza pachena kuti America yakakamurwa kubva pa50-50 - nhamba dziri pedyo zvakanyanya. YouGov ine Biden vs. DeSantis panguva chaiyo asi inoisa Trump pa2% pamberi pemutungamiri wenyika.
Joe Biden achange aine makore makumi masere nemaviri ekuzvarwa muna 82, asi sekureva kwevavhoti, ndiye mukana wepamusoro weDemocrats wekuhwina imwe temu. Zvinoshamisa kuti sarudzo inonzi Harris Poll ine VaTrump vanotonga Kamala Harris musarudzo nezvikamu gumi nechimwe kubva muzana.
Kana mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wenyika, Kamala Harris, akakwikwidza pachigaro, sekureva kwevavhoti vakanyoresa, anomira zviri nani kupokana naRon DeSantis, kazhinji achivhota kunyangwe nagavhuna weFlorida.
Mumwe chete anopikisa Harris anokunda muongororo ndiye aimbova gavhuna weSouth Carolina, Nikki Haley weRepublican - zvakadaro Haley akaramba achivhota pazasi pegumi muzana muRepublican primary.
Heino mutsara wepasi:
Iyo data inonongedzera kumakwikwi e2024 pakati peBiden naTrump, asi parizvino, America yakakamurwa nepakati. Nhamba dzacho dziri pedyo zvekuti hazvingaite kuti ufonere ahwina panguva ino. Mafungiro iwayo anogona kuramba akatsiga kusvika zuva resarudzo - zvichireva kuti vhoti imwe neimwe yakakosha!
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